Its not the end

Victory is always cherished and desired but valuable lesson comes from a defeat. Though it is true, its only to console and to keep spirits high of the defeated. I found it very relevant with BJP in context of the recent general elections.If they say "this defeat brings lots of lessons for us and therefore good" will only be to infuse high spirits in the cadre or to console themselves. 5 years away from power for second consecutive term is too high price for those lessons. Though it remains second largest party and prime force against congress, BJP's voter base has contracted substantially. Congress with thumping victory will rule for the next 5 years without any problem and India's 'first family' will further grow their influence with Rahul baba getting completely involved in politics.

To come back in power with a greater force in a country which is now known to give fractured mandates is amazing. People have chosen congress over BJP and therefore safe to say that congress campaign was more relevant to common people than bjp's campaign. Both are pro development, pro liberalisation parties therefore for a urban voter I think some other related things were vote deciders. Iam attempting to analyse the election results for which iam thoroughly under qualified.After all,...whooo issss qualified ? Senior journalists and psephologists ? when was the last time they predicted correctly ? Still u give ur lot of time to their analysis so u can bear patience with me too.

In difficult financial period incumbent party looses heavily but opposite happened. Why ? Point to be noted is people have voted for economic health of this nation and Coz this is a difficult period, it is obvious that people will. How can BJP miss this point ??. People very well know that Manmohan singh is a very able economist himself and P Chidambaram (though now home minister) also is believed to be outstanding as finance minister. Wherewas the BJP's counter part ? ? When u r supposed to steer India in midst of global recession , u forget to board captain !!. Why didnt BJP project their Finance minister ? Yashwant sinha was the obvious choice and is fairly known and respected. "Majboot Neta , Nidnayak sarkar" was good campaign but it is obvious that L.K.Advani would also need a Finance minister. Voters will not think of what BJP's alternatives will be, BJP had to project them and provide answers in advance to obvious queries. Besides, urban voter was fairly informed about the intensity of financial crunch in other powerful economies. And they were relieved at much less intense scenario in India. Congress being in power received applause in form of votes for much better condition of India then others.Congress should thank ex RBI governor Mr. Y.V.Reddy for this. He is the hero behind its exceptional performance in elections. To some extent BJP's faulty campaign was responsible and for the rest was Mr. Reddy.

BJP has failed to consolidate its voter base. Failure is partly because of inefficient campaign and partly because of nature of its voter base. Hindus cannot be considered under one tag. They are huge in number and issues are highly disparate. There are several regions and thus regional issues come in and they dont only have identity of a Hindu, they are also bengali, gujrati, tamil, kannada, sindhi, marwari etc etc. If they want votes on Hindutva ideology which is their USP they should have attempted to win votes. No serious mention or intent to explain people about amarnath shrine board land issue or Ramsetu issue. They could have easily used environmental aspect with the emotional aspect to explain why we dont want Sethusamudram project and cash in votes of even those who dont vote for Hindutva. No major emphasis on either of issue though I saw them and heard abt them but it was too subtle. I dont mean that Advaniji should have repeated rath yatra but should have made clear in the campaign why is he said to be the Iron man.

In the last 5 years, Congress was presented with problems by Left on number of occasions. The public support was always with the congress between the two allies and its historical stance on nuclear deal won them commendation from all across the country. Baffled by Left and sympathizing with congress's inability to form government without them, people voted in larger numbers for congress. I remember Mr. Narendra Modi saying "Budhiya congress". Being old helps congress. Congress has presence all across the country and whenever people vote to oust regional parties, congress is the default gainer. BJP has sound network in Hindi belt region but is absent in most other states. And the most important constituent of Hindi belt, Uttar Pradesh eludes BJP. For BJP to come in power,it has to sweep Hindi belt and make considerable gains in non-hindi states too. There is more than 1 reason for focusing on extending their base to non-hindi states.
1. Simple enough. Larger base ,greater gain.
2. They fight for assembly elections aswell and may play 'kingmaker'in state
elections. Thus they gain a reliable regional ally at centre.
3. Hindi belt politics is very different from Non-Hindi belt. Their issues and
identity is very different. Their mistakes in one belt will probably not hurt
their electoral prospects in another belt.
4. Extending their influence in other states would mean that they would be able to
capitalise on anti-incumbency votes in such states.( I'l talk about it later)

Being old is a boon for congress. They are present in farthest corners. Be it Arunachal, J&K, Lakshwadeep, Kerela or Gujrat. Having such a base ensures they dont remain out of power for long. A mild wave in favour of congress will do the job whereas BJP will need impregnable wave. This also ensures that state leaders will at some time become party's national executives and if the party forms government they will also be part of it. This works for satisfying regional aspirations of people of those states.

The fact is people have given fractured mandates for last many elections and safe to assume that they will do so in atleast next few elections. The allies therefore hold utmost importance for both the national parties. Congress will get more allies and will form the government even if they both have equal number of seats. There's reason to it. Congress is needed by many regional parties to form governments at state and therefore for regional parties to rule in state would mean to support congress at centre. BJP even after being the biggest party in alliance generally doesnt has upperhand. Mamta and Jayalalitha troubled them coz they didnt needed BJP at state. Even TRS left them and so did INLD. BJD too pulled out of alliance. JD(U) and Shiv Sena might have done same if the BJP at the state wasnt indispensable. Congress on other hand gains allies such as National conference in JnK, Trinamool Congress in WB and NCP inMaharashtra. Further, congress gains seats where BJP doesnt even contends or is not a threat. Kerela, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil nadu, J&K, Orissa, West Bengal, Haryana and I havent still mentioned states in NE. BJP must learn these hard lessons and must learn how to keep upperhand over allies.

In many of the states congress is one of the two main parties wherein BJP still has been unable to register its presence. Being in opposition at the state at times does wonders for congress. Indian voters mostly vote on anti-incumbency. Given 2 choices to Indian voter - change non performing central government or non performing state government voter will choose to change the state government. Everyone is aware about the awareness of a common voter. They dont differentiate a MLA and a MP. So people vote against non performing state governments and congress seems to gain on that. For example Kerela. Congress's major gain apart from Rajashtan came from Kerela. Another example is WB( where congress has done remarkably good with mamta).

In coalition some are natural allies who dont even have comfort of giving thought to number game. BJP looses to congress on this front too. Congress can form alliance with most of parties without hurting vote banks of either parties. Alliance with BJP hurts voter base of most parties. BJP therefore has to win maximum seats on its own and rely less on allies. Further they should work on strategic alliances in states even if it means that they stay junior partner in alliance at the state as in Maharashtra and Bihar. Pushing their ally BJD (orissa) to the extent that it pull out of coalition was simple arrogance and lack of foresight. To form government at the centre they needed many more partners like BJD. The elections are over and mandate is very clear. So all BJP has to do is to plan for future and future reminds me that problem of BJP hasnt ended.

A national party 'XYZ' out of power for 10 years will hope to get 'vote for change'. Considering Indian scenario where none of the parties have corruption free image, anti-incumbency vote in 10 years will normally grow very strong. That is good news for 'XYZ'. XYZ can be BJP. So will this be good for BJP in the nextelections ?? I doubt it. BJP will have to sweep Gujrat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattishgarh & Rajasthan to come back in power. MP and Chattisgarh are ruled by BJP and will complete their 10 years just before next General elections and might be possible that Assembly and General elections will be held at the same time. Gujrat will complete 15 yrs of BJP rule before General elections. 10 or 15 yrs in power normally translates into embarrasing loss. And considering what apparently is Indian voter mindset, strong anti incumbency or vote for change at state might embarrass BJP at the centre. Huge loss in these states will serve as nail in coffin for BJP. What BJP leadership should ensure is that they appoint party watchdog over their state governments and routine evaluation must be done. Its right time for BJP to show its commitment to "Su-raaj" or good governance. BJP will have to work extraordinarly in these states to convert anti-incumbency vote into pro-incumbency to contribute massively to BJP government at the centre. Mr. Modi is good example for rest of BJP states and so is Sheila Dixit. In current politics governance at state level will determine extent of party's success in general elections and this is true for every party.

There are lot many other lessons for BJP but I believe there is huge support for its issues. Its campaign failure does not means that its stand on severalissues was not appoved or is wrong. Dont we need tougher anti terrorism law ??? Dont we need to be assertive when it comes to our nation's defense ??? Was Indian reply to attacks in Mumbai sufficient ?? Do we need Sethusamudram after all the environmentalists and economists rubbished it ??? Do we need a government that denies Lord Ram's existence ???

Mr. Advani would no doubt have been a better Prime minister. He is energetic, assertive and a mass leader who can represent resurgent and assertive India much better than Mr. Singh. I hope that he will put all his energy into organisation and BJP will be able to restructure itself under his guidance before he takes leave from politics.